A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
