Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
